Until a few days ago, many political bettors might have pegged Joe Brennan, an aide to outgoing State Rep. T.J. Rooney, to take over Rooney's seat--or at least the important Democratic nomination--in the May 16 primary. There were four men in the race, but that was the way to bet.
But now one act of political sleaze seems to have altered the possible outcome of the legislative contest in this district. Call it, if you like, An Ad Too Far.
For some reason, Brennan seemed to spend little if any money; no ads from him crossed this writer's mailbox threshhold. Only one came in from his most prominent opponent, Jose Rosado; and none from the least-known candidate, who is such a low-profile person that it is only possible to write that I think his name is Dennis O'Leary, and he is from East Allentown.
The candidate who did flood voters with ads, most likely to his own undoing, was Anthony Rybak. Tony Rybak, the son of former State Rep. William Rybak, last surfaced politically when he ran against John Callahan, now Mayor of Bethlehem, and generated a presentable protest vote against Callahan.
It seemed good that he entered the race for the legislature. This wIiter also has no quarrel with receiving three or four postcard ads from him that must have cost a great deal of money, because they were "normal" ads. That is, they touted Rybak's qualifications for the job he sought. That is what political ads are supposed to do. I know a couple of people who even seemed on the verge of voting for him, on the basis of those ads.
But then, there was the OTHER ad. The attack ad against Joe Brennan. This attack was unfortunately based on a real experience of Joe, one involving loss of self-control and an encounter with the police department. Rybak's ad pretends the incident happened twice, not once--as if once were not enough.
In the not-so-old days, the voters would most likely have been forgiving, disinclined to cast the first stone when practically all of us can remember some episode in our past we are not proud of. Now the mood is different; and who knows? Perhaps the electorate will
give Brennan a rousing sympathy vote. Or--and more likely--it will not; and the wound inflicted by Rybak's ad will prove mortal to Brennan's political career.
But almost certainly Rybak will find that he himself has not benefited from the attack ad. I myself could not imagine voting for a person who would lash out on such a viciously personal level, and I know others who feel the same way.
This leaves Jose Rosado, who may be poised to take the biggest political step any Latino in the Lehigh Valley has yet taken. Rosado is an educator and a man who would be very well-prepared to take a constructive role in the state legislature should Brennan's and Rybak's mutual discomfiture give him the opportunity. And in the future he would be running on his own record.
I am not betting that this is how it will come out; but it certainly will be interesting to see.

Here is a blog for readers to check out, in case they have not run into it before. It is Bernie O'Hare's Lehigh Valley Ramblings, at http://lehighvalleyramblings.blogspot.com. Bernie casts a valley-wide net, and gives you yet more links, and can be wickedly funny. Some off-the-wall graphics there, too.